Following a Near-Term Market Decline, the Launch of New Acute Therapies and Increasing Uptake of Allergan’s Botox Will Drive the Migraine Drug Market to Increase to $4.4 Billion in 2020

BURLINGTON, Mass. -- (BUSINESS WIRE) -- Decision Resources, one of the world’s leading research and advisory firms for pharmaceutical and healthcare issues, finds that generic erosion of key agents—including the continued generic erosion of GlaxoSmithKline’s Imitrex (sumatriptan)—will continue to account for the current decline in the migraine drug market, from $3.4 billion in 2010 to $3.2 billion in 2013 in the United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, the United Kingdom and Japan. However, the launch of several new acute therapies and the growing uptake of Allergan’s Botox for migraine prophylaxis will drive the market to increase to $4.4 billion in 2020.

The Pharmacor advisory service entitled Migraine finds that, with seven different triptan molecules available in most major markets, the unmet need for acute treatment lies in therapies that are more effective than the triptans or therapies for patients who do not respond to or tolerate the triptans, or in whom the drugs are contraindicated. Nevertheless, the most active area of development in acute treatment is in the reformulation of triptans, primarily for patients who cannot take tablets owing to nausea and vomiting. Decision Resources forecasts that, through 2020, four triptan reformulations will launch, starting in 2013—NuPathe’s sumatriptan patch (Zelrix), APR Applied Pharma Research/Labtec/MonoSol Rx’s zolmitriptan oral dispersible film, IntelGenx/RedHill Biopharma’s rizatriptan oral film (INT-008), and OptiNose’s sumatriptan intranasal powder. Together, these therapies will garner sales of $470 million in 2020.

According to the findings, experts agree the most critical area of unmet need in migraine treatment is for prophylaxis, as most current therapies are considered insufficiently efficacious and/or tolerable.

“Currently, however, we do not forecast the launch of any new prophylactic therapies through 2020,” said Decision Resources Analyst Anne-Elise Tobin, Ph.D. “The prophylactic market will grow 5 percent annually from 2010 to 2020, driven primarily by uptake of Botox, particularly in the United States, and also by increasing diagnosis and prophylactic drug-treatment rates.”

The most promising emerging therapies for acute treatment are an orally inhaled formulation of dihydroergotamine (MAP Pharmaceuticals/Allergan’s Levadex), launching in the United States in 2012, and a novel 5-HT1F receptor agonist (CoLucid’s lasmiditan), launching in the United States and in Europe in 2016 and in Japan in 2019. While neither therapy will effectively compete with the rapidly genericizing triptan class for early-line use, both therapies will be used in patients who do not respond to or tolerate the triptans. Decision Resources forecasts that, together, these nontriptan therapies will garner more than $1.2 billion in 2020.

“Experts indicate that lasmiditan’s novel mechanism of action is unlikely to be associated with cardiovascular risk, so we expect the drug will be an alternative for patients in whom triptans are contraindicated,” said Dr. Tobin. “Levadex will likely be used in difficult-to-treat migraineurs, owing to dihydroergotamine’s reputation among specialists as a fail-safe for breaking intractable migraines.”

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